On 10th August 2020, the Board of Control for Cricket in India (BCCI) received approval from the Government of India to hold the 13th edition of the Indian Premier League (IPL) cricket tournament in the United Arab Emirates. Due to the rising number of coronavirus cases, it was deemed too risky to hold the lucrative sporting event in India.
Why did BCCI select UAE as the host for IPL in 2020? Weren't there suitable venues within India which could have been viable?
Since this is a problem statement involving 'Location', I wanted to see what Map-based Location Analytics could reveal to me. Before I begin, spare a minute to think of potential venues within India or beyond which could've been a feasible alternative to the UAE. Compare your intuition with my finding mentioned later on in this post.
At the outset, I think both of us would concur that shifting the IPL's location to a venue outside Asia - be it South Africa (like in 2009) or an Australia or England wouldn't have been viable because of the high expenditure involved, strict quarantine rules and restrictions, logistical challenges, and so on.
Since there wouldn't be any viewers in the stadium (and no ticketing revenues as a result), scheduling this Cricket Extravaganza in a distant land during the Coronavirus pandemic would always be the least attractive and practical option.
Within Asia, I couldn't think of any reason why India should have forfeited the opportunity to be the host. After all, I feel we have so many Cricket Stadiums across the length and breadth of our vast country. Surely, we'd be able to find a couple of viable venues in less pandemic-affected regions and hold the tournament there.
As soon as I got hold of the data, I realized that my perception was way off the mark - India had just Twenty Three (23) Active International Cricket Stadiums - Operational, with Floodlights, International Cricket Council (ICC) -approved i.e. with adequate Sporting & Residential amenities, and so on.
23 Cricket Stadiums by no means is a small number though - in fact, sifting through the data I figured that it is actually the most any country in the world has.
'Surely, we could have found a combination of suitable venues from these 23 options', I thought to myself.
Note: The dynamic Map-based application that I prepared for this study can be accessed from https://arcg.is/0jD519. You can navigate it as you read this article as there are many facets which would appeal to you once you explore the data yourself - the representative images included in this post may not be fully self-explanatory always. You may be asked to sign up and create a free account on the application's landing page.
2024 Update: The application is no longer functional.
The next question that I asked to myself was 'What parameters should I choose for selecting the combination of venues within India? I felt it should be equivalent of or better than what UAE offered to the Indian Cricket Board (BCCI).
UAE had offered 3 cricket stadiums which were located in close proximity to each other. I assume that this is the primary criteria that swayed BCCI - it would be easier to schedule games and logistics for the eight teams (up to 4 teams play everyday) at this combination of three closely-knit locations. The added advantage, besides the presence of modern training facilities, is the availability of suitable accommodation (Quarantine Bubble) at each of these locations (UAE being a premium global Tourism hub).
Modern Location Analytics platforms (GIS) are very powerful. Rather than plotting Straight Line (Euclidean) distances between venues, I used the Drive Time geoprocessing tool to compute the Distance coverage from a given location within a particular time frame (This tool can be configured to factor in road network, average vehicle driving speed, time of the day, live traffic data, and so on).
In the visual above, you are observing the distance coverage from Sharjah stadium if you'd be driving a car for 2 hours, in any direction from the venue. Since, Sharjah stadium occupies the right extreme, you'll gather all the three stadiums fall within a 2-hour travel window (assuming no traffic blockages). The Road connectivity between these three venues is excellent as well.
I could see now why the UAE appealed to BCCI - less time involved in travel, less touch points (no flights, just on-ground travel and hence, lower chances of getting infected), luxury accommodation for the cricketers and associated staff, excellent training facilities, and so on - all these factors would have indicated that it is possible to create a strong 'bio-secure bubble' - something which BCCI deeply desired to arrange for the travelling contingent.
'But wait, can't we have something similar in India? Where the Travel Time is comparable or even lesser than the UAE', I wondered.
Upon loading the Indian Cricket Stadium data onto a map (depicted above), it dawned upon me that most of the International cricketing venues in India are geographically dispersed.
Upon running the Drive Time Analysis tool as I had done for the UAE earlier, this output was generated -
I did not find the result to be encouraging- No combination of 3 stadiums appeared to fall within the two-hour travel time limit.
At best, there are three pairs of 2 stadiums which could be considered as a viable alternative - Mumbai's Wankhede and Brabourne stadiums; Delhi & Greater Noida stadiums, and Lucknow & Kanpur stadiums. The closest three-stadium pairing in close proximity would be Mumbai's Wankhede & Brabourne & Pune's MCA Stadium.
In case you are wondering, the DY Patil Stadium in Navi Mumbai has been converted into a football stadium and therefore doesn't feature in the list of Active International Cricketing Venues. If it was still an international cricket venue, then Mumbai (2) + Navi Mumbai (1) would have been the ideal 3-location pairing, purely from the proximity perspective.
Update - October 2024: I was put up in a hotel just behind the DY Patil Stadium and by the looks of it - it has been converted into a Cricket stadium once again! Perhaps it is a multi-purpose stadium - Wikipedia indicates that football matches are only played occasionally here and, in fact, the stadium had hosted a number of cricket games in the 2022 version of IPL. If only it was available for cricket in 2020😢!
Let me ignore the 'Virus cases' parameter for the time being and continue to jostle with this problem statement purely from a 'Proximity' standpoint. If India is not suitable, can other countries in Asia be suitable?
Within Asia, Pakistan is obviously not an option that India would consider - so Bangladesh & Sri Lanka remain the only plausible choices by virtue of them being Test-playing Cricketing nations. Because both are tiny countries, the likelihood of finding 3 stadiums in close proximity to each other could be high, I feel.
As I figured, Bangladesh has only 4 Active International Cricket Stadiums with floodlights i.e. with the provision to hold an evening / night game. Unfortunately, no three venues fall within the two-hour Drive Time window here either. Only a 2-venue pairing of Dhaka and Fatullah (both being part of the Dhaka administrative division) fits the bill. The other two venues - Chittagong and Sylhet respectively, are between 4-6 hours Driving Time away from Dhaka.
Also, by virtue of being one of the world's most densely populated countries affected by the pandemic, I can understand why BCCI would have been very reluctant to consider Bangladesh even if it fulfilled the proximity criteria.
Now, I am left with Sri Lanka. Let me check what the island nation to the south of India has to offer.
Sri Lanka, like Bangladesh, has only 4 Active International Cricketing Venues with Floodlights at the moment.
Close! Although not exactly within the 2 hours Drive Time Frame, the combination of Colombo, Pallekelle and Dambulla (with Colombo and Dambulla occupying the extreme ends) seems to be a compelling proposition!
Let me bring in the Virus cases parameter now in order to do a more meaningful analysis...
With modern Location Analytics platforms, one can avail the benefit of integrating a diverse range of non-geospatial datasets in the model provided we are able to link it to positional data. So I proceeded to gather the Total Coronavirus Cases (cumulative) dataset as of today - 20th September 2020 and linked it to the coordinates of the Asian cricketing venues (positional dataset).
As I couldn't source City-wise Virus Cases datasets for all the venues, I decided to go one level above and use Administrative Region-wise Virus Cases dataset, wherever available, instead. Thereafter, I intended to use the percentage population of the City within that Administrative Division in order to normalize the dataset and estimate the Total Virus Cases for each venue. For India, I felt it would be easy to obtained the Total Virus Cases dataset at a State Level, for the UAE - at an Emirate level, for Sri Lanka - at a Provincial level and for Bangladesh - at a Divisional level.
Unfortunately, I wasn't able to access the Administrative Region-wise Total Virus Cases dataset for UAE and Sri Lanka. As a result, I went another level higher and obtained the Total Virus Cases at a Country level and multiplied it with the percentage of population that lives in that particular city (which has the cricket venue). For example, if UAE has 200 Total Virus cases and Sharjah Emirate within has 20% of total UAE population, then I've assumed that Sharjah would have 40 cases of Virus detected till date (20% multiplied by 200). Arguably, this method of estimation is flawed, however, it appeared to be the next best alternative to me in order to continue with this exploratory study. Fortunately, the total number of Virus Cases for these two countries was low and therefore, the chances of high variance to reality / gross misrepresentation was reduced considerably.
Once I integrated the Virus dataset with the positional information of Cricket Venues, I plotted the data on the map. The depiction took me by surprise (refer Figure 7 above).
While the total Virus Cases in the UAE is relatively less (85,000), when compared to its population, the percentage of Virus Cases to Population is actually high - between 0.74% and 0.99% i.e. nearly 1 person is affected out of every 100 - it is the second-worst classification among the Asian venues used in this study. The whole of Eastern India and Bangladesh fares better than the UAE. This bewildered me although one can contest that the Virus statistics in India is understated due to the low rate of testing in India, under-reporting of data etc.
Unfortunately, the combination of venues most suitable in terms of proximity in India - the Mumbai-Pune trio fares worse than UAE in terms of the Total Virus Cases parameter.
That being said, the trio of Dehradun, Dharamshala and Mohali also looks like an appealing alternative. However, I understand that the Himalayan foothills would be a difficult terrain to navigate, especially at night once the matches conclude, especially with the harsh Winter season just around the corner. The 3 stadiums in the state of Uttar Pradesh are even better placed in terms of the proximity parameter, but I can understand why they would not be considered suitable to host the IPL - due to the extremely high population density within the state (nearly three times the national average).
Hence, I reluctantly came to the conclusion that, from both Venue Proximity and Total Virus cases perspective, there doesn't seem to be any attractive combination of Cricketing venues either within India or Bangladesh.
Which leaves us with the tiny island nation Sri Lanka. With Total Cumulative Cases in the entire country at 3287 as of today, Active cases at just 186, the Cases to Population ratio is the lowest for all the Asian locations at 0.02%. Additionally, Sri Lanka is blessed with a pristine terrain. The availability of suitable accommodation also shouldn't be a problem as the island nation is a popular global tourism destination. Plus, the Winter weather during this time of the year would be very pleasant too as the country is situated closer to the Equator (albeit Rains may play spoilsport). Moreover, its proximity from the Indian mainland, and a INR / LKR exchange rate of 1 / 2.52 (Expenses play a vital role) - the trio of Dambulla, Pallekelle and Colombo seems a very compelling alternative to me - even better than UAE dare I say.
Fun Fact: Sri Lanka actually even offered to host the IPL way back in April. So what could have gone against it? Why wasn't it considered eventually. I could think of the following reasons why UAE was eventually preferred over Sri Lanka -
a) Charges of Corruption against the Sri Lankan Cricket Board and b) Security Threat
How did you find this exploratory study?
The methodology can be refined further if one wants to do a more meaningful analysis. Parameters such as Active Virus cases, Projected rise in Virus Cases, Location and Quality of Hotels available in the vicinity (ICC mandates a minimum of 4 star accommodation for international matches), Location-wise expenses breakdown, Weather Predictions can be used to compare and shortlist the most suitable combination of venues to host the IPL Cricket Tournament.
For this article purposes - which is purely academic & informative in nature, I'll leave it here, though.
One important learning which I derived was that there is much to benefit from having Sporting Venues located in close proximity to each other. After all, it would help in organizing large competitions and global tournaments without all the long-distance travelling hassles. No wonder, extravagant Olympic Villages are built to facilitate the biggest Sporting Tournament of the planet instead of organizing the games across venues in the host country. While each state in India may build one or two Cricket Stadiums to appease the voter base, logistically speaking, it is a nightmare for Athletes, Telecast professionals and the entire sporting ecosystem in terms of Cost, Time and Comfort.
Update - December 2020: Refer this article which highlights the benefits of having a 'compact' Sporting Tournament.
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Much Thanks to ESPN Cricinfo, John Hopkins Virus Dashboard, Wikipedia & Esri's Living Atlas for the datasets. This study was done on Esri's ArcGIS Online Location Analytics Platform.